Russia steps up plan to supply grain to Africa and exclude Ukraine

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Russia is pushing ahead with a plan to supply Africa with its own agricultural exports and lock Ukraine out of global markets, according to three people familiar with the matter, after withdrawing from a UN-backed grain deal this week.

The people said President Vladimir Putin has proposed a replacement initiative under which Qatar would pay Moscow to send its grain to Turkey, which would distribute the harvest to “countries in need”. He said neither Qatar nor Turkey has agreed to the idea, which has not been taken to a formal level by Moscow.

Kiev and its Western backers are likely to be deeply suspicious of Russia’s offer, which would effectively secure Moscow’s naval blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, a vital economic lifeline for the country.

People familiar with the matter said Russia first floated the idea of ​​supplying its grain to Africa last year after it temporarily pulled out of a UN- and Turkey-brokered Black Sea accord that allowed 33 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain exports. A few days later Moscow rejoined the agreement.

Under that proposal, Russia was to send 1 million tonnes of grain to Turkey “on a preferential basis”, according to a draft memorandum seen by the Financial Times. Qatar will pay the bill in full and the grain will be supplied to Turkey to be shipped to Africa.

After Putin again pulled out of the grain accord this week, people involved in those talks said they expect Russia to continue its efforts at a summit with African leaders in St. Petersburg next week and when he visits Turkey in August. Will take the proposal forward.

“It’s quite a stunt,” said one person involved in the grain talks. “It’s manly, just to show they can do it.” A person familiar with the matter said Moscow had not formally approached Doha about the initiative, but added that Qatar was unlikely to agree if it did.

Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, declined to comment. Turkey, Ukraine and Qatar did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Putin said Russia backed out of the grain deal because of the EU’s reluctance to lift sanctions on Moscow’s payments, shipping and insurance for its agricultural exports. He claimed that he would be ready to rejoin as soon as the conditions were met.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said this week that Russia is still “in favor” of the Black Sea accord, and called on the West to make concessions to Putin on the issue.

However, Ukraine’s supporters believe the Russian offer is actually a way to apply additional pressure on Kiev while exporting grain from parts of the country currently held by its forces, two Western diplomats said.

A senior EU official said, “The last time they were considering this (the idea) we had a very strong suspicion that the grain would actually be grain stolen from Ukraine.”

Moscow has publicly framed the idea as offering free grain to the poorest countries ahead of the Russia-Africa summit. It has used the grain issue as a weapon to garner sympathy in the Global South for its position on Ukraine and to generate sentiment against Western sanctions.

Putin complained this week that Western countries were blocking Moscow’s efforts to send free fertilizer to Africa. On grain, he said: “Our country is capable of replacing Ukrainian grain on a commercial and free of charge basis,” adding that “there is no point in continuing the grain deal in its current form”.

However, pulling out of the Black Sea accord has angered some governments in Africa, particularly those facing pressure domestically from rising food prices since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year. Is doing.

Kenya, a consumer of Russian grain and fertilizer, said this week that the Russian move was a “stab in the back” that “disproportionately affects” countries in its region.

According to African officials, other African leaders are bowing to US pressure to denounce Russia on the grain issue and not to travel to St. Petersburg. This creates bonds for some as they often require Russian and American assistance on economic and security issues.

Additional reporting by Adam Samson in Istanbul