BlackRock Has ‘50% Chance’ of Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval: Analyst


Investment management firm BlackRock has a 50% chance of approval for its spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF), according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

Balchunas’ prediction follows a comment made by Elliot Stein, senior litigation analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, who now pegs Grayscale’s chances of winning its case against the SEC at 70%.

Balchunas pointed out that the SEC may view BlackRock’s ETF filing more favorably as a way to “save face” by allowing ETFs from a “trusted ‘adult’ TradeFi” firm instead of Grayscale.

Since Grayscale appealed the United States Securities Exchange Commission’s decision to deny its application in June 2022, the two sides have been in a back-and-forth legal filing, in addition to oral testimony heard by three US federal appeals court judges on March 7. engaged in.

We believe that “Grayscale has a 70% chance of winning its lawsuit against the SEC over the company’s bid to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a bitcoin ETF.”

Grayscale’s chances rose to 40% after the parties completed oral arguments because “all three judges on the panel appeared to favor Grayscale,” based on their “asking manner,” Stein said.

Stein said Bloomberg expects a conclusion by August.

Applications for bitcoin ETFs have been a central focus point for the industry recently, with Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree, and Valkyrie all pursuing $10 trillion. Asset management firm BlackRock is in line for SEC approval.

If the SEC ultimately approves applications from firms offering similar services such as JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon and Bank of America, the digital asset market will be exposed to companies with a combined $27 trillion in assets under management. .

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While the decision on Grayscale’s case is awaited, GBTC has gained over 134% in 2023 to $19.47, its highest price since May 13, 2022. According Google for Finance.

Additionally, the discount in GBTC’s share price to its total net-asset-value fell by 31% on June 26, the lowest level recorded since September 12 last year. statistics From YCharts. The lower discount rate on the trust means that investor sentiment towards the product could be more positive.

GBTC rebate on Net Asset Value (NAV). Source: ycharts.org

However, like most of the crypto market, GBTC is down more than 65% from its all-time high of $56.70.

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