The West must act now to break Russia’s nuclear fever

The author is a lecturer at Stanford University, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO and former US Chief Negotiator on New Start

Russia was gripped by apocalyptic fever during the war in Ukraine. It started with Vladimir Putin’s view that a world without Russia is not a world worth living in. This prompted Russian media figures to urge the nuclear incineration of London.

More recently, former President Dmitry Medvedev threatened a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Europe, and Sergei Karaganov of Moscow’s Foreign and Defense Policy Council urged the Kremlin to “reconcile targets in many countries to bring them to justice.” kill a bunch” who have lost their mind to reason”. In short, the US and its NATO allies must withdraw support to Ukraine or destroy it.

Joe Biden and other Western leaders have been wise in meeting these wild threats with messages of calm resistance and resolute defense measures. China’s Xi Jinping, for his part, has done us all a service by warning Putin to stay away from nuclear strikes; So is the Narendra Modi of India. Nevertheless, the perception that the Russian ruling class, including its top figures, is ignorant of these destructive weapons is widespread.

The association with a nuclear apocalypse appears to be symptomatic of a wider concern that the West is bent on Russian disintegration because of its aspirations in Ukraine. The Kremlin argues that it only wanted to resume its ancestral authority over a Slavic heartland, but that the US and NATO are seeking punishment for the complete and utter destruction of Russia as a nation state.

This argument is ridiculous. Of course, Russia has national interests, but they cannot affect the interests of other countries. When they do, they should be reconciled without aggression. At this point in time, with Russian troops carrying out a bloody invasion of Ukraine, such a notion seems fanciful. Nevertheless, we can agree that it is an ideal worth pursuing, and start working towards it.

As a first order of business, we can clarify that Russia’s strategic defeat does not mean its disintegration, but rather its exit from Ukraine, its willingness to atone for the horrors of the invasion and aftermath, and massive reparations. His willingness to war damage. Under those circumstances, we can cooperate with Russia to advance its interests, such as securing its borders and ensuring that its citizens live in peace and prosperity in a stable neighborhood.

To reinforce that message, we need to restate some of the key principles of post-Cold War tensions. One is that ready armed forces should not be deployed near borders without giving reason to their neighbors. For NATO forces, such clarity is a no brainer. Russia, which has disregarded this principle for many years, will have to bring it back. The more Moscow understands NATO’s intentions and capabilities, the better it is for Russia – and vice versa.

We also need to work hard to restore nuclear cooperation. Putin suspended Russian participation in the New Start treaty in the mistaken belief that the US would submit to his demands on Ukraine. The US does not link limits on nuclear weapons to other issues: they are an existential necessity in themselves, and if Putin cannot recognize this, it is to the detriment of his own country. Its nuclear forces lose an important means of predicting US behavior as America begins a two-decade modernization of its nuclear triangle.

Finally, we need to figure out how to work with Russia. Waves of Kremlin abuse culminated in the Ukraine invasion, which resulted in NATO allies ceasing contacts – diplomatic presence, military-to-military contacts and economic talks. Moscow itself shut down cultural and educational exchanges. Now Russia is largely closed to us and we have little opportunity to communicate directly with the government or the public at large.

And yet there is potential. For many years we worked closely with talented diplomats, defense officials, economists and nuclear experts who have been central to advancing Russia’s foreign and security policy on the world stage. It is up to us how we can reconnect with them when the time is right. Some have poisoned the well so much that this won’t be possible, but others may once again become allies. Young talent has begun to rise through the government ranks, some of whom will be glad to see their options open again with Europe and the US.

The key is to start thinking now about both what we need from Moscow after its defeat in Ukraine, and how to ensure our future security. While Russia’s interests cannot come at the expense of any other country, we can accept that they are valid. Making it clear may help break nuclear fever: it is to everyone’s benefit that we do so.